工期不确定性下项目群业主费用现值与鲁棒性权衡研究
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作者:
作者单位:

河海大学商学院,江苏南京, 211100

作者简介:

胡震云,博士,教授,研究方向为管理科学与工程理论与方法。

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中图分类号:

F224.33

基金项目:

江苏省社会科学基金项目“‘双碳’目标下数字赋能江苏水生态协同治理路径与机制研究”(23GLD006);南京工程学院引进人才科研启动基金项目“多方协同下长江水生态治理龙头企业特殊社会责任实现的合作机制与对策研究”(YKJ202321)


An Investigation into the Trade-off Between the Present Value of Program Employer Costs and Robustness in Project Portfolio Under Uncertainty of Construction Period
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Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100 , China

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    摘要:

    在多主体和工期不确定性环境下,业主追求低项目群费用现值和高鲁棒性之间的权衡。本研究首先界定了研究的问题并分析了相关理论;其次基于多主体特点探讨了业主费用现值与鲁棒性之间的复杂关系并构建了项目群鲁棒性模型;再次探讨了如何在不确定环境下提升费用现值稳健性并构建了权衡模型;最后结合案例分析提出了一系列管理启示。研究结果表明,在工期延长时间相同时,费用现值与鲁棒性值存在权衡关系,超过某一范围后转化为累积关系;在工期延长时间不同时,两者依然存在权衡关系;随着资源占用费比重降低,潜在工期延长费用现值下降。研究成果为业主决策和项目群调整提供了参考,满足了业主不同的决策偏好。

    Abstract:

    In an environment characterized by multiple agents and uncertainty in project duration, stakeholders endeavor to strike a delicate balance between minimizing the present value of collective project expenditures and maximizing overall resilience. This study initially defines the research problem and analyzes relevant theories. Subsequently, it delves into the intricate interplay between the present value of the owners costs and robustness, drawing upon multi-agent characteristics, ultimately constructing a sophisticated model for project group robustness. Furthermore, this study explores methods to enhance the stability of cost present value under uncertain conditions and develops a trade-off model. Finally, through case analysis, a series of management insights are articulated. The findings suggest that a trade-off relationship exists between the present value of costs and robustness when the duration extension remains constant. Beyond a certain threshold, this relationship evolves into an accumulative one. Even when varying durations are taken into account, a trade-off persists between these two factors. As the proportion of resource occupancy costs diminishes, any potential increase in duration results in a decline in cost present value. The research findings offer profound insights that significantly enhance the decision-making processes of owners and facilitate strategic adjustments to their project portfolios, thereby accommodating the varied preferences inherent in their decision-making styles.

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胡震云,陈静妍,肖志鹏.工期不确定性下项目群业主费用现值与鲁棒性权衡研究[J].南京工程学院学报(社会科学版),2024,24(4):56-67.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-03-24
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