PM2.5污染对中国家庭迁移决策的影响研究
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陈晓虹,博士,讲师,研究方向为环境经济学。E-mail:chenxh27@njit.edu.cn

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X196;C971

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江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);南京工程学院校级科研基金项目(YKJ202119);南京工程学院产业经济与创新管理研究院开放基金项目(JGKB202207)


Research into Impact of P M 2.5Air Pollution on Household Decisions on Migrations in China
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    摘要:

    研究采用2010年人口普查的微观数据,以家庭单位为分析对象,实证分析了空气污染物PM2.5浓度对家庭迁移决策的影响,同时借助工具变量法探究了PM2.5浓度与家庭化迁移之间的反向因果内生性,并通过回归分析家庭带孩子、老人等一起迁移的可能性。结果表明,无论是迁移当年还是迁移前3年、5年累计平均的PM2.5浓度,均对家庭化迁移行为产生了显著的“推动”作用,即面对较高的PM2.5空气污染时家庭倾向于迁移的可能性较高。家庭面对PM2.5污染也倾向于携带易受雾霾威胁的脆弱群体(老人、孩子)进行举家迁移及夫妻联合迁移。此外,PM2.5浓度与家庭化迁移行为之间存在因果内生性,会低估估计系数。未来,随着城镇化发展和人口红利问题,政府应当从公共环境政策、基础设施投资建设、随迁人口的社会保障协调发展战略等方面制定相应措施。

    Abstract:

    Using microcosmic data of 2010 census,this paper studies the impact of air pollutant PM 2.5concentration on household decisions about migration from the perspective of household units.Reverse causality between PM 2.5concentration and household migrations are investigated by means of instrumental variable method,and the possibility of family migration with children and old people respond to PM 2.5pollution is also explored.The results show that mean PM 2.5concentration and cumulative average PM 2.5concentration of three and five years before the migration year have a significant "promotion" effect on family migration behaviors.The study also finds that when there is higher PM 2.5pollution,families tend to migrate together with vulnerable groups ( elder people and children) who are vulnerable to PM 2.5pollution.The possibility of family tendency to migrate in the face of worse PM 2.5air pollution was greater.In addition,this paper proves that there is a causal endogeneity between PM 2.5concentration and family migration behaviors,which underestimates the estimation coefficient.Demographic dividend is one of the key factors in the sustainable development of a city.In the future,with urbanization and scarcity of population dividend,local governments should introduce corresponding measures in the aspects of public environmental policies,infrastructure investments and constructions,and coordinated development strategy of social security for displaced populations.

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陈晓虹. PM2.5污染对中国家庭迁移决策的影响研究[J].南京工程学院学报社会科学版,2022,22(4):53-63.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-02-14
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